Schinckel.net

Took the boys down to the park this afternoon. They hadn’t left the house since Monday evening.

The school adjacent to the park was closed (due to a case of COVID-19), but otherwise, it didn’t feel that different. There were a couple of other groups of people there, and we ran/scooted/played for about an hour.

Getting them out of the house was really good - not only did they get to burn a bunch of energy, but it seems to have made them better able to play together this evening. They’ve been really good so far in terms of not fighting that much, but it is only day 3.

I’d be so happy if we turn out to have gone way too gung-ho on this - if South Australia (and Australia) manage to get this outbreak under control in weeks, rather than many months, I’ll be happy to cop shit for going overboard and pulling the kids out of school. But the number of cases has continued to grow at a rate higher than 23% per day.

My modelling, which is simplistic, looks like this:

    date    │ infected
────────────┼──────────
 2020-03-17 │      449
 2020-03-18 │      552
 2020-03-19 │      679
 2020-03-20 │      835
 2020-03-21 │     1027
 2020-03-22 │     1263
 2020-03-23 │     1553
 2020-03-24 │     1910
 2020-03-25 │     2349
 2020-03-26 │     2889
 2020-03-27 │     3553
 2020-03-28 │     4370
 2020-03-29 │     5375
 2020-03-30 │     6611
 2020-03-31 │     8132
 2020-04-01 │    10002

That’s stopping at 10k, by April 1st.

Currently, it’s 2020-03-19, and there are 691 confirmed cases.