Schinckel.net

It’s Friday. End of our first week of working and schooling from home.

We bought a new iPad for the boys, which arrived within 25 hours. They are now using it attached to the trampoline; the old iPad was not working with that, so that’s a bonus. We also bought a water filter, so it’s been a productive week.

Working from home has been fine. I’m sure I’m not as productive as I was in previous weeks, but I don’t know how much of that is COVID-19 in general playing on my mind.

Australia’s infection rate is still above what my 23% compounding increase model suggests. https://covid-19-au.github.io is currently showing 854 confirmed cases, whilst my simple predictions said 835 by today. Watch it go over 1000 tomorrow.

According to the Guardian, our rates are slightly better than most other countries, although only Japan is an outlier there. Since that’s a logarithmic scale, we are perhaps even better off than it seems. Not sure how much of that is just insufficient testing though. On the same page, you can see that our total number of deaths is low: however, there is nothing that shows deaths-per-infection.

SA still sits at 50, which is about 30% better than predicted. However, we are not doing nearly as much testing as NSW.

Recommendations are to stay at home all weekend. I suspect I will be taking the boys somewhere - perhaps we could go for a walk in BNP.